ACAP study identifies pathway to a new clean-energy polysilicon export industry

The ACAP-supported Australian Silicon Study (AusSi Study) has quantified the potential economic benefits of establishing a solar-grade polysilicon industry in Australia. It identifies an opportunity to diversify global solar supply chains and develop a new, high-value clean-energy export industry, providing a new source of export earnings alongside Australia’s established fossil fuel exports as global energy markets transition towards renewables.

The AusSi Study builds on the 2024 Silicon to Solar study, undertaken by the Australian Photovoltaics Institute (APVI) in partnership with ACAP and Deloitte. That study examined opportunities across the solar PV manufacturing supply chain and identified polysilicon as a strategically important upstream manufacturing opportunity for Australia.

Published in May 2026, the AusSi Study's economic modelling estimates that a proposed 50,000-tonne-a-year facility at the Hunter Energy Hub in NSW could deliver $8 billion in net economic benefits to Australia over ten years, with every $1 of government support returning $5.20.

A proposed 50,000-tonne-a-year facility could deliver $8 billion in net economic benefits to Australia over ten years, with every $1 of government support returning $5.20.

The proposed 50,000-tonne-a-year Australian polysilicon facility would produce enough material to support more than 27 GW of solar module manufacturing annually, around five times Australia’s current installation rate. With 90–95% of production expected to be exported, the project could help diversify global solar supply chains.

Market engagement with more than a dozen downstream manufacturers across six countries identified interest in a reliable, traceable alternative supply. Potential customers cited supply chain security, geopolitical resilience, strong labour and environmental standards, and stable long-term trade relationships as key advantages of Australian polysilicon.

The proposed $2.5–3.5 billion investment could produce enough polysilicon for approximately 27 GW of solar modules annually

The proposed $2.5–3.5 billion investment could produce enough polysilicon for approximately 27 GW of solar modules annually, adding value to Australia’s existing quartz and metallurgical silicon exports. The proposed facility could also support regional economic renewal, creating around 900 high-skilled manufacturing jobs, helping the Hunter region diversify beyond coal-based industries.

The AusSi Study was supported by the Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA) under its Solar Sunshot program, and assessed the market, technical and economic conditions for establishing large-scale polysilicon production in Australia. It found that commercial viability will depend on reliable, competitively priced electricity, investment support, experienced technology partners and sustained demand at prices that cover Australian production costs.

ACAP contributed market and techno-economic analysis, led by Dr Michelle Vaqueiro Contreras, with contributions from Dr Nathan Chang and Dr Simao Lin, and guidance from Professor Renate Egan. The team worked alongside consortium partners Bright Dimension, ITP Renewables, GHD, Cyan Ventures, Solinno, Asia Silicon and Hualu Technologies.  Polysilicon production is defined by ultra-high purity requirements and complex closed-loop chemical processing including heat and gas recovery. Because solar-grade polysilicon production is highly energy intensive, electricity prices and the capital cost of building the facility are the main factors determining whether Australian production can compete internationally. Labour costs are a much smaller factor, reflecting the highly automated nature of polysilicon manufacturing, compared with other parts of the solar supply chain.

Projected operating expenditure of proposed polysilicon plant in the Hunter region.

Australia’s exceptional renewable energy resources create the potential to produce electricity at some of the lowest costs in the world. However, to translate this advantage into competitive energy-intensive manufacturing, Australia needs to deliver reliable electricity at consistently low prices, and work with experienced manufacturers and technology providers to minimise upfront investment costs.

Engagement with potential customers and industry stakeholders generated twelve letters of support from organisations across six countries, indicating interest in traceable, reliable alternative polysilicon supplies. The study estimates a potential supply gap for non-Chinese or compliant polysilicon of around 240,000 tonnes by 2035, increasing to more than 350,000 tonnes by 2040.

The findings featured in pv magazine and Renew Economy, and were presented at the 54th IEEE Photovoltaic Specialists Conference in New Orleans, and the 2026 Smart Energy Queensland conference. The research has also contributed to broader policy discussions, including a subsequent Pearls and Irritations commentary examining strategic opportunities for Australia’s clean-energy manufacturing and global supply chain diversification. The project is under development by Australian Silicon Enterprise, with a final investment decision yet to be reached.

References

Hartley, O., Vaqueiro-Contreras, M., Hallam, B., Littlewood, J., Gartner, J., Brand, L., & Robinson, M. (2026). Pre-Feasibility Study: Australian Silicon (AusSi) Opportunity – Knowledge Sharing Report. Supported by the Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA). ARENA Knowledge Bank

Australian Photovoltaics Institute (APVI), in partnership with ACAP (2024). Silicon to Solar: A detailed study of opportunities for Australian solar photovoltaic manufacturing. Read the report