Exploring the viability of renewable-powered polysilicon production in Australia

The Australian Silicon Study (AusSi) has identified that a 50,000 tonnes per annum solar-grade polysilicon facility represents the minimum commercially viable scale for production in Australia – aligned with projected global demand of approximately 1.2 terawatts of new solar PV installations annually by 2030.

Funded by the Australian Renewable Energy Agency under the Solar SunShot Program, AusSi assesses the technical, commercial and investment feasibility of establishing a large-scale polysilicon production facility within the Hunter-Central Coast Renewable Energy Zone, powered by low-emissions renewable electricity. 

ACAP’s Dr Michelle Vaqueiro Contreras is contributing, building on her role in the 2024 APVI Silicon to Solar (S2S) study, which identified polysilicon as the most strategically relevant upstream segment of the solar PV value chain for Australia to consider.

Today, more than 95% of global polysilicon production is concentrated in China. It is also the most energy-intensive and emissions-intensive stage of solar module manufacturing, with electricity costs driving both production economics and carbon intensity.

Australia has abundant renewable energy resources and an established metallurgical-grade silicon industry producing approximately 52 kilo tonnes annually. This presents a tangible opportunity to move beyond raw material exports and into higher-value manufacturing aligned with long-term decarbonisation and supply chain diversification.

AusSi moves beyond high-level supply chain mapping to rigorously test commercial viability. The study examines global market accessibility, price expectations, technology selection, plant scale optimisation, material flows, regulatory requirements and detailed capital and operating expenditure modelling. 

Technology assessment has identified the Siemens process as the most appropriate initial pathway, given its technical maturity, product quality profile and compatibility with premium and traceable supply markets. Polysilicon chemical vapour deposition (CVD) reactors represent the core unit operation in the Siemens polysilicon process. This stage accounts for more than 70%  of total process energy consumption and is responsible for achieving the ultra-high purity deposition required for electronic and solar grade polysilicon.

The chemical vapour deposition (CVD) reactor hall used for the production of polysilicon. These large scale reactor arrays deposit high purity silicon from vaporised trichlorosilane in hydrogen atmosphere onto heated silicon rods, forming the core step of the Siemens polysilicon production process. (Photo: Asia Silicon) 

The work is led by Energus, and delivered by Bright Dimension and ACAP as key analytical contributors, in partnership with world-leading polysilicon producer Asia Silicon, energy provider AGL, and engineering advisory firms across Australia and China. This collaboration ensures that industrial cost data and execution insights underpin the techno-economic assessment.

Asia Silicon in the Qinghai province, China, is one of the top five polysilicon producers in the world and a critical enabling partner for AusSi’s technoeconomic analysis of a poly-plant in Australia. It provides access to current industrial data on state-of-the-art polysilicon production, including process configuration, capital intensity, operating cost structures and material balance parameters within a global supply base that remains highly concentrated in China.

The brand new control room at the Asia Silicon polysilicon production plant. Asia Silicon is providing critical access to current industrial data on state-of-the-art polysilicon production to the AusSi Study. (Photo: Asia Silicon)

Now in its final phase, the AusSi study is refining capital and operating expenditure estimates and conducting sensitivity analysis across key cost drivers to determine overall investment feasibility. Findings will be synthesised in a public knowledge-sharing report expected to be released in May 2026.

As lead ACAP contributor to the study, Dr Michelle Vaqueiro Contreras notes, “Polysilicon sits at the upstream heart of the solar industry.

"If Australia can competitively produce it using low-emissions renewable power, it would demonstrate that we can move beyond exporting energy and instead export the materials that enable the global energy transition. This study is about testing that proposition with rigour.”

For Australia, one of the world’s largest fossil fuel exporters, AusSi tests whether renewable-powered materials manufacturing can underpin regional economic transition while strengthening global solar supply chain resilience.

High purity crystalline silicon produced by the Siemens method courtesy of Asia Silicon, an industry partner of the AusSi Study. Polysilicon for the semiconductor and photovoltaic industries is among the purest human-made materials ever produced, with purity levels reaching 6N to 11N.